From nuisance to material risk: Should insurers be using turbulence overlays?

An important trait of CAT is its unpredictable nature. While meteorologists can forecast areas of potential turbulence, finding their exact location and intensity remains difficult. 

Climate change is exacerbating the problem, too. Studies indicate a significant increase in CAT frequency and intensity over the past four decades, particularly over busy airspaces like the North Atlantic. Projections suggest this trend will continue, with some areas potentially seeing a doubling of severe CAT occurrences by 2050, according to research by Munich Re.  

This growing challenge affects airlines by impacting safety, operational efficiency, passenger comfort and ultimately profitability. However, these challenges also present opportunities for innovation within the aviation industry. For example, advanced detection technologies such as LiDAR-based systems that remotely sense turbulence are crucial to developing better solutions. Similarly, real-time data from aircraft and weather satellites can give pilots more accurate warning. 

With their proven ability to analyse vast datasets quickly to identify patterns and improve predictive capabilities, AI and machine learning algorithms also have an important part to play.  

As with most complex problems, collaboration between different organisations is often one of the most effective ways to tackle it. One example is the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) “Turbulence Aware” platform. This initiative focuses on a data-driven approach to turbulence mitigation, collecting and sharing real-time, automated turbulence reports from participating airlines.  

IATA's Turbulence Aware platform in action

By collecting data on actual turbulence encounters, pilots can gain access to more accurate and timely information, enabling them to make more informed decisions and mitigate the impact of CAT. 

Globally, nearly 5,000 cases of severe turbulence occur annually across more than 35 million flights. The International Civil Aviation Organisation reported in its 2024 safety review that almost 40% of passenger injuries in 2023 were caused by turbulence. 

As climate change shifts atmospheric conditions, temperature changes and shifting wind patterns in the upper atmosphere are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence. The frequency of turbulence is projected to increase in other areas too, according to a recent study, including parts of East Asia, North Africa, North Pacific, North America, and the Middle East. 

However, while this exposure continues to evolve, like the broader aviation industry, exposure managers and underwriters can start to look to technology for better solutions for tracking and anticipating emerging events.

For example, with technology platforms like Insurwave, Aviation underwriters and exposure managers can establish a command centre powered by portfolio and third-party data feeds in one place, creating a single source of truth to respond to events as they unfold.  

We are also looking to consistently improve our offering, forging new partnerships with exciting third-party data sources to ensure you have access to the latest threat and hazard overlays and notifications, from Osprey Analytics to National Flood Data. 

As previous examples have shown, many existing tech companies provide new data to help aviators and insurers navigate turbulence corridors. This could also extend to new overlays reserved exclusively for CAT or similarly severe instances of turbulence.  

By combining such actionable aviation risk data with Insurwave’s real-time aggregation and visualisation technology, underwriters, risk managers, and brokers could access a comprehensive view of aviation CAT risk – all within a single platform.

As CAT continues to become more prevalent and unpredictable, the convergence of advanced detection technologies, industry-wide collaborative data sharing platforms and sophisticated risk visualisation tools presents an invaluable opportunity to transform how we understand and manage this evolving exposure. 

The path forward requires a fundamental shift in perspective – from reactive operational responses to proactive strategic risk assessment. Just as insurers have developed sophisticated models for hurricanes and earthquakes, the aviation sector must now build comprehensive frameworks for turbulence risk that integrate real-time data, predictive analytics, and collaborative intelligence. 

The good news is that this technology exists today to make this vision a reality. By leveraging platforms that combine portfolio data with third-party hazard intelligence, aviation stakeholders can move beyond traditional approaches to create a new paradigm of climate-aware risk management.